Decision infrastructure for uncertainty
From Forecasts to Decisions.
Almanac transforms uncertainty into actionable recommendations by combining probabilistic forecasting, scenario simulation and decision optimization.
P(x) → Sₙ → argmax E[U(a)]
The problem
Forecasts are becoming commodities.
Forecasting has never been more accessible. Yet organizations still lose billions making decisions under uncertainty because probabilities rarely answer the most important question.
01
Weather forecasts.
02
Economic forecasts.
03
Prediction markets.
04
Large Language Models.
05
Superforecasters.
Still unanswered
“What should we do?”
Our thesis
The missing layer between prediction and action.
01
Signals
02
Forecasts
03
Scenario Simulation
04
Decision Optimization
05
Recommendation
06
Outcome
07
Learning
First customer
Built for decision-makers.
Current focus
Commodity Risk Teams
Energy Traders
Utilities
Future markets
Logistics
AI Infrastructure
Critical Infrastructure
Insurance
Case studies
Decisions that shaped markets.
European Energy Crisis
Problem: gas supply volatility and price shocks. Decision: hedge, curtail, substitute or secure capacity. Potential impact: preserved margin and operational continuity.
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Red Sea Shipping Disruptions
Problem: rerouting uncertainty and constrained capacity. Decision: reroute, delay, insure or rebalance inventory. Potential impact: avoided service failures and carrying cost.
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Panama Canal Drought
Problem: passage limits and transit delays. Decision: book earlier slots, reroute or adjust procurement windows. Potential impact: reduced demurrage and missed delivery risk.
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Texas Winter Storm Uri
Problem: extreme weather and grid fragility. Decision: secure capacity, shed load, hedge exposure or pause operations. Potential impact: reduced outage and price-spike exposure.
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Manifesto
From Forecasts to Decisions
Forecasting is becoming abundant. Decision-making remains fragmented. Almanac exists because organizations deserve better tools for making expensive decisions under uncertainty.
Read the full manifesto